一、报告时间

2025年12月15号9:00-10:00

二、报告地点

经济管理学院131会议室

三、报告人

蔡港树 圣克拉拉大学教授

四、报告主题

Perils of Self-Imposed Export Sanctions:A Game-Theoretical Perspective on the Sino-U.S. Technology War

五、报告摘要

The intensifying competition between the U.S. and China has brought trade policies such as export sanctions and subsidies to the forefront of global industrial strategy. This paper develops a stylized game-theoretical model that integrates sanctions, subsidies, and retail market size into a unified framework to examine their joint effects on manufacturers' technology investment incentives, market shares, and social welfare. The analysis shows that free trade generally benefits both countries, whereas export sanctions often harm not only the targeted country but also the sanctioning country by reducing its manufacturers' profits; even worse, they may at times enable the developing country to catch up technologically. Subsidies promote investment and can not only accelerate the ability of technologically disadvantaged firms to surpass rivals but also amplify the adverse effects of sanctions, especially in asymmetric settings with unilateral subsidies. Retail market size further shapes outcomes: when differences are large, retailers' gains can offset manufacturers' losses, creating counterintuitive welfare effects. These findings highlight that policies intended to protect domestic industries can backfire, while subsidies and market advantages reshape competition in ways that extend beyond traditional strategic trade theory. For managers and policymakers, the results underscore the importance of aligning industrial policies with market structure and competitive dynamics, as poorly calibrated sanctions or subsidies may inadvertently strengthen foreign competitors while weakening domestic firms.

六、报告人简介

蔡港树博士目前担任圣克拉拉大学教授及系主任、国际权威学术期刊《生产与运营管理》资深编辑，《决策科学》领域主编和《IEEE 工程管理》领域主编。他同时是管理科学与工程学会供应链与运营管理分会的创始主任和硅谷数智供应链研究院的创始人。蔡博士多次获得国际级、校级和学院级的优秀研究、教学与服务奖项。迄今为止，他已在供应链金融、运营管理、市场营销、电子商务、生产制造与服务管理等领域的国际权威学术期刊发表五十余篇论文，并著有《供应链金融：机制原理、风险分析与技术创新》一书（中英文版）。